The BC Trench
One of the many things that interests me about WoW is the economy and how it responds to the different changes that Blizzard makes to the game. For instance, when the Sunwell Isle came with Patch 2.4, and the number of available dailies increased dramatically, the economy boomed. In fact, it boomed so well that we went straight into inflation. The price of primals, ore, enchanting mats and BoEs went sky high. Now that Blizzard has implemented several gold sinks, the prices of these items will likely possibly hopefully come back down to more reasonable levels.
Another interesting economic phenomenon was the effect that the release of BC had on one small sub-section of the old world crafting mats. The high level old world (HLOW) dungeons and zones exist in what I call the BC Trench. Places like Scholo, Strat, BRS, Silithus and EPL are pretty barren these days; very few people run these dungeons or quest in these zones because they can go ahead to the Outlands and get far better gear with less effort.
The interesting thing is that these zones and dungeons are the sole producers of the HLOW crafting mats, which are still needed by people skilling up their crafting professions. Thorium Ore, Rugged Leather, and Mountain Silversage are just some of the many items needed by crafters that can be found almost exclusively in the HLOW zones.
So think way back to your high school economics class (I would say college economics class, but let’s be honest… if you remember much of college, then you didn’t do it right) and let’s see if we can figure out what effect the BC Trench has on the economy. Very few people questing in the zones = Low Supply. A good amount of people skilling up professions, and needing the mats = Medium to High Demand. Low Supply + Medium/High Demand = High Prices!
If I were to take a guess at the historical price trend of Thorium Ore since original WoW was released, I expect things would look something like this:
Upon WoW’s release, Thorium, as a high level crafting item, wasn’t used at all. The price probably rose gradually as more and more people began to reach the appropriate character levels to need it. Shortly thereafter, as the majority of players who started playing WoW on Day One hit level 60, the price began to rise more dramatically, as demand increased substantially. After BC was announced, prices probably began to drop as demand for Thorium (and its related craftable items) waned a bit. Then BC came out and bam! the demand for Thorium shot through the roof! People were coming back to WoW, powerleveling JC, trying to get their BS and Engineer alts to 300 so they could learn the Outlands recipes… just about everyone needed some Thorium.
After the initial BC frenzy wore off, and the demand for Thorium slowly decreased to match the supply, prices started to level off, with perhaps a slight upward trend due to inflation. The price jump in the “BC Released” to “BC Frenzy Ends” segment is due entirely to the BC Trench effect. I’m willing to bet that other HLOW crafting mats had similar jumps in price, and that non-high level mats (such as Mithril Ore and Heavy Leather) decreased in the weeks after BC’s release, or at least held steady.
So what’s all this mean? Well, I figure that any time you can identify a trend in economics, there’s usually a way to exploit it (heh heh heh *rubs hands together evilly*). The most obvious way to make money from this is to farm HLOW crafting mats and sell them for exorbitant prices on the AH. Head out to Silithus or EPL, mine Thorium, pick flowers, and skin beasties till your bags are full. The problem with this is that it’s kinda boring, and to be totally honest, if you’re 70, then you could probably be making more money doing dailies.
So here’s a better idea. If you have an alt with a gathering profession, instead of heading straight to HFP when you hit 58, keep questing in Azeroth. If you did all of the quests available in WPL, EPL, Silithus, and Winterspring, not only would you have made a good deal of money, but you would also have ding’d 60 (at least) before you even stepped foot in the Outlands.
And lastly, but certainly not leastly, here is a fun little trick for enchanters. Of all the HLOW enchanting mats, Greater Eternal Essences have been most strongly affected by the BC Trench. Pre-BC I think they sold for about 5 to 10G on my old server, and now they go for 25 to 30G or more on Shandris.
The GEEs come from disenchanting pre-BC level 51 to 60 items, which now sell for peanuts in the AH. So you can pick up some old world Greens that no one else wants, and DE them for a very nice profit. It’s quick, easy and everyone wins!
A couple of things to note if you’re going to do this: 1) GEEs only come from old world items. If you pick up a level 50-something Green that came with BC, then you won’t ever get a GEE. If in doubt, check Wowhead to see what your item DEs into. 2) Weapons have a much better chance of DE’ing into GEEs than armor does. Armor will usually give you Illusion Dust. And lastly, 3) if you’re going to supply any of the BC Trench mats for people on your server, be careful not to oversupply things and break the market. Check and make sure there is enough demand on your server for what you’re supplying.
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As someone who knows nothing about WoW or MMO’s, my mind has been officially blown x_x
I…I think I need to go take a walk or something.
I’m planning on switching my Paladin to Blacksmithing for Lich King, so I’ve been gathering quite a bit of mats. This trend (the “trench”) presents a pretty rough problem for anyone looking to level blacksmithing or, to a lesser extent, engineering.
From ~270 to 300, you need an extraordinary amount of Thorium Bars (something to the tune of 600 bars, I think). If purchased, this is a lot of money (at least 1200g on my server). However, farming it means a heavy time sink in the old world. Fortunately, I’ve been playing for a while and I have the money to spend on most of the materials… but what about someone that recently started playing and wanted Blacksmithing to be one of his professions?
This leads to an interesting change in Lich King. The starting Blacksmithing recipes (using Lich King mats) are available at 350 - 25 points less than the current max. By only leveling to 350 with BC mats, you avoid most of the pricey recipes that use tons of Primals, Eternium, and Khorium. If these recipes started at 375, imagine how expensive and time consuming it would be for someone to pick up WoW during Lich King and level up Blacksmithing?
Makes ya wonder if they’ll go back and add in some ~275 Blacksmithing recipes to make the grind easier. With my luck, they’ll do it as soon as I make the switch and use up that 600 Thorium.